Nigeria’s Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected that the country’s current account surplus will expand to $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up from $7.54 billion in the previous quarter. This optimistic forecast is attributed to a decrease in import demand and sustained high crude oil prices, which have buoyed the nation’s trade balance and external reserves.
This anticipated surplus is significant as it reflects Nigeria's improving external position amid global economic uncertainties. The FMDA's report highlights a consistent upward trend in the current account, which has risen from $1.40 billion at the end of 2025 to nearly $9.22 billion in Q2 2026. The increase in oil prices, particularly Brent crude reaching $99.95 per barrel, has played a crucial role in enhancing Nigeria's trade balance, which is vital for a country heavily reliant on oil exports. Furthermore, the naira has shown signs of appreciation, supported by stronger foreign exchange fundamentals and market confidence.
Looking ahead, analysts will closely monitor the release of official Q3 data to confirm FMDA's projections and assess the potential impact of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO on foreign currency flows. While the IPO has generated investor interest, its direct influence on foreign exchange liquidity remains limited for now. As oil prices are expected to moderate in the coming months, the sustainability of Nigeria's current account surplus will be a key area of focus, especially in relation to global market dynamics.